World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates – COTTON – July 2018

The July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is now available in PDF, XML, and Microsoft Excel formats at

COTTON: The U.S. 2018/19 cotton projections show lower production, exports, and stocks compared with last month. The 1.0-million-bale decrease in the crop projection is due to higher expected abandonment based on current conditions. Beginning stocks are 200,000 bales lower due to an increase in 2017/18 exports. 2018/19 exports are reduced 500,000 bales based on lower supplies and increased foreign competition. With no change in domestic consumption, 2018/19 ending stocks are projected at 4.0 million bales, down 700,000 bales from the June estimate and unchanged from the revised 2017/18 level. The midpoint of the projected range of the marketing- year average price is raised 5 cents from last month to 75 cents per pound.

Historical revisions to China’s consumption back to 2014/15 account for most of a 3.3-million-bale decline in 2018/19 world beginning stocks. World 2018/19 consumption is 1.6 million bales higher than in June, as the revisions to China’s consumption estimates carry through into the 2018/19 projection year with a 1.0-million-bale increase. Consumption forecasts are also higher for Bangladesh, Pakistan, Brazil, and Vietnam. World production is projected 290,000 bales lower than in June, as reduced U.S. and Australian production more than offsets increases for Brazil, India, and Mexico. World trade is projected 165,000 bales higher this month as lower U.S. exports are more than offset by increases by Brazil and China. Ending stocks are 5.2 million bales lower than in June, with the largest declines in China (4.6 million) and the United States. India’s and Brazil’s ending stocks are forecast higher.

The next release of the WASDE report will be August 10, 2018.
PCG Email Services – Mary Jane Buerkle, Editor

Plains Cotton Growers Inc.

4517 W. Loop 289

Lubbock TX 79414

Phone (806) 792-4904

PCG Email Services provides news and articles covering cotton generally and West Texas specifically. The weekly PCG newsletter “Cotton News by Email” is also distributed through this service. Articles do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of PCG.