By Duane Howell DTN Cotton Correspondent
Concerns about China contributed to the dive. Cotton on the Texas Plains has remained late, but weather has helped the crop to progress, agronomists say. Texas plantings “guesstimated” at 4.9 million acres, down from USDA’s June estimate of 5.2 million.
Cotton futures closed sharply lower Thursday, extending a losing streak to four sessions in a row and settling at the lowest close in benchmark December since March 17.
- December closed down 126 points to 62.26 cents, near the low of its 134-point range from down eight points at 63.44 to down 142 points at 62.10 cents. March finished down 117 points to 62.35 cents.
- Sharp losses in China’s Zhengzhou cotton futures overnight and talk that USDA might lower world cotton consumption in its supply-demand report next week amid concerns about economic growth in the world’s second largest economy and largest cotton consumer contributed to the dive.
- Volume quickened to an estimated 40,400 lots from a final 14,030 lots the prior day when spreads accounted for 4,493 lots or 32% and EFS 27 lots. Options volume totaled 6,210 calls and 5,525 puts.
Cotton on the Texas High and Rolling Plains typically has remained two to four weeks behind in development but weather patterns have helped crop progress, according to extension cotton agronomists.
“You can almost hear the cotton growing out there — it’s looking so good,” Mark Kelley of Lubbock, area agronomist at Lubbock, said in a Texas Agrilife Extension Service report.
Temperatures in the Lubbock area have been reaching mostly the high 90s with nighttime lows in the 70s, near ideal cotton weather, Kelley said. And wet conditions which delayed plantings earlier combined with summer rains made for some favorable moisture conditions.
However, temperatures were expected to reach 100 degrees at Lubbock for the first time this year on Thursday and were forecast up to 110 degrees in the Rolling Plains.
“We saw our first blooms toward the last of July, so we’re going into the first week of bloom for most of the crop,” Kelley said.
Despite the lateness of the crop, the cotton agronomist is optimistic about yield prospects.
“Even with ideal weather, the crop isn’t going to catch up that much,” he said. “But with proper management and timely rainfall, we can gain some ground.”
However, with another strong El Nino building, there’s a chance wet weather late in the season could delay the harvest and/or result in regrowth, he said.
A wet, cool September is among the weather hazards still ahead in the short High Plains growing season. The long-term average first freeze date at Lubbock is Oct. 31.
But if the area can dodge significant weather issues in September and have an open fall with good maturation temperatures, both irrigated and dryland yields could be excellent, Kelley said.
In the upper Gulf Coast, Brazos Valley and Blacklands, the situation isn’t as rosy, said Gaylon Morgan, state extension cotton specialist at College Station.
“We kind of had the worst case scenario,” Morgan said. “It was so wet early, and then turned off so dry. So the plants didn’t have the chance to develop a good root system.”
Both Morgan and Kelley agreed that the USDA’s June estimate of Texas upland plantings of 5.2 million acres, down 16.1% from 2014, likely is on the high side. Morgan “guesstimated” plantings were somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.9 million acres.
Futures open interest rose by 1,173 lots Wednesday to 180,979, with December’s down 90 lots and March’s up 1,127 lots. Cert stocks declined 877 bales to 105,074.
